Q2 real GDP
1.5%
Policy-era evidence dashboard
Where has the U.S. economy actually been stable?
Compare all 11 GICS sectors across economic, corporate and market resilience during the Trump administration—without confusing high returns with low risk.
January 20, 2025 → September 22, 2026Latest completed market session used in the analysis · Price returns exclude dividends
Unemployment
4.1%
Headline CPI
3.4%
Retail sales
$773.9B
Fed 2026 PCE view
3.7%
Market stability
Return is not resilience
The upper-left is the conventional defensive zone: lower volatility with positive return. Bubble size reflects maximum drawdown.
Comparatively stableHigh-return, high-riskSPY benchmark: 29.4% return · 17.2% volatility · -19.0% drawdown
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Change the importance of economic, corporate and market evidence. Scores are analytical indices built from the documented evidence—not investment ratings.
All 11 GICS sectors
Sector evidence table
| Sector | Return | Volatility | Max drawdown | Stability view | Primary policy tension |
|---|
Closest to stable
Four defensible cases
These sectors qualify for different reasons. Click any sector in the table for its full evidence profile.
Health care
+21.2%
MultidimensionalDemand, jobs and market behavior aligned.
Essential demand and 378,500 additional health-care jobs supported economic resilience; XLV’s drawdown was five points smaller than SPY’s.
Primary risk: Medicaid pressure, provider reimbursement and drug-pricing intervention.
Staples
14.7%
Market defenseThe quietest stocks were not the winners.
The sector posted the lowest volatility and smallest drawdown, but trailed SPY by roughly 22 percentage points.
Primary risk: Tariff and input-cost inflation without enough pricing power to preserve volumes.
Utilities
-15.1%
ConditionalStable demand met an unstable financing environment.
Regulated revenue and record power-demand prospects supported operations, while high rates and grid capex constrained shareholder returns.
Primary risk: Financing costs and regulatory lag on large capital programs.
Industrials
+23.6%
Split sectorDefense strength masked manufacturing pressure.
Defense budgets and backlogs supported one side; tariffs and softer factory output pressured trade-sensitive manufacturers and transportation.
Primary risk: Higher input costs and procurement concentration.
LinkedIn article anchors
What the data actually says
Seven specific findings designed to survive a skeptical reading.
The most stable sector was not the best performer.
Consumer staples had the lowest volatility and smallest drawdown, yet significantly lagged the broad market.
14.7% vol · -9.9% drawdown · +7.1% return
Health care had the strongest all-around case.
Its market behavior was defensive, while its labor-market contribution was unusually large.
+378,500 health-care jobs YoY
Technology was resilient—not stable.
AI-led earnings and prices surged, but investors absorbed the highest volatility and deepest sector drawdown.
+67.7% return · 28.0% vol
Utilities’ businesses were steadier than their stocks.
Power demand grew, but capital intensity and elevated financing costs weakened the market result.
+2.8% return · -26.6 pp vs SPY
Energy was an inflation hedge, not a safe harbor.
The sector beat SPY modestly, but its volatility was second only to technology.
+31.5% return · 24.4% vol
Industrials contained policy winners and losers.
Defense spending supported backlogs; tariffs raised costs for manufacturers that consume imported metals and components.
$1.01T FY2026 defense request
Headline labor stability hid concentration.
Health care supplied most of the net job growth while information, financial activities and government contracted.
603,000 total net jobs YoY
Primary evidence
Sources and method
Official releases and established market research. Links open outside the app.
Federal Reserve · Summary of Economic ProjectionsSep. 16, 2026
BLS · Employment SituationSep. 4, 2026
BLS · Consumer Price IndexSep. 11, 2026
Federal Reserve · Industrial ProductionSep. 18, 2026
Census Bureau · Retail SalesSep. 2026
S&P Dow Jones Indices · GICSCurrent 2026
Federal Reserve · Tariff pass-through analysisMay 2026
KFF · Medicaid and hospitalsJun. 11, 2025